Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Gobela, Getxo
The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mérida AD wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
On Elo ratings, Arenas Getxo has 1,838 points and Mérida AD 1,882.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arenas Getxo
4-3-3- 9José Luis Cortés
- 23Álex Oyón
- 10Martin Pedroarena
- 16Gael Akogo Esono
- 6I. Garcia
- 21I. Telletxea
- 18Rubi
- 3A. Lekuna
- 5J. Zubelzu
- 2J. Larrauri
- 1Manuel Obón
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 21Raúl Beneit
- 19D. Sandoval
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 23Geovanny Almeida
- 8Martín Solar
- 2Alejandro Agustín
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 16Fito
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 1A. Csenterics
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Getxo have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barakaldo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cacereño(away) | 0-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Zamora(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-5 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 3-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arenas Getxo win, 0 draws, 1 Mérida AD win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Arenas Getxo 2-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Mérida AD 3-0 Arenas Getxo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Getxo score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Getxo | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Mérida AD | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Getxo sit 20th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (2 points from 7 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 2 |
A question about Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Arenas Getxo.
- Where and when is Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD played?
- Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD is played on October 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Gobela, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.