Where and when is Barakaldo vs Mirandes played?

Barakaldo vs Mirandes is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Barakaldo vs Mirandes: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo

Barakaldo

Mirandes

The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mirandes. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Barakaldo vs Mirandes?

A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,956) and Mirandes (1,877).

Barakaldo win51 %

Draw27 %

Mirandes win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Mirandes have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Barakaldo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Portugalete(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(home)	1-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Real Avilés(away)	4-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 9, 2026	Mérida AD(home)	2-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 1, 2026	Tenerife(away)	0-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Mirandes
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	UD Logroñés(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 19, 2026	La Calzada(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Real Madrid II(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 13, 2026	Atlético Madrid II(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Barakaldo win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mirandes win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 28, 2024	Barakaldo 1-1 Mirandes	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Barakaldo vs Mirandes on Jul 28, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mirandes score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Barakaldo	1.3	0.9	6	5/15	5/15
Mirandes	1.3	1.5	3	9/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Barakaldo	38	15	13	10	51	38	58

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Mirandes?: The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mirandes.
Where and when is Barakaldo vs Mirandes played?: Barakaldo vs Mirandes is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.