Where and when is Lugo vs Racing Ferrol played?

Lugo vs Racing Ferrol is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lugo vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo

Lugo

Racing Ferrol

The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?

A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Lugo (1,885) and Racing Ferrol (1,832).

Lugo win42 %

Draw31 %

Racing Ferrol win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 2, 8 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lugo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Ourense CF(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Coruxo(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Racing Ferrol
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 13, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Unionistas de Salamanca(away)	2-3	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Osasuna II(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 8, 2026	Arenas Getxo(away)	1-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Lugo win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Racing Ferrol win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 7, 2026	Racing Ferrol 1-1 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 21, 2025	Lugo 2-1 Racing Ferrol	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 30, 2022	Racing Ferrol 1-1 Lugo	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 6, 2022	Lugo 1-0 Racing Ferrol	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Racing Ferrol vs Lugo on Feb 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lugo	0.9	1.3	5	6/15	6/15
Racing Ferrol	1.0	1.5	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lugo sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (53 points from 38 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 12th (49 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36	40	53
12	Racing Ferrol	38	13	10	15	41	47	49

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?: The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Racing Ferrol.
Where and when is Lugo vs Racing Ferrol played?: Lugo vs Racing Ferrol is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.