Match

Arenas Getxo vs Lugo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Gobela, Getxo

Arenas GetxoLugo

The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 0-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Lugo?

Lugo starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,974 vs 1,809).

9%17%74%
Arenas Getxo winDrawLugo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Arenas Getxo vs Lugo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Arenas Getxo

4-3-3
  1. 23Álex Oyón
  2. 9José Luis Cortés
  3. 14E. Redondo
  1. 16Gael Akogo Esono
  2. 21I. Telletxea
  3. 20Eneko Zabaleta
  1. 3A. Lekuna
  2. 5J. Zubelzu
  3. 18Rubi
  4. 2J. Larrauri
  1. 13H. Oleaga

Lugo

4-3-3
  1. 17Chiqui
  2. 11M. Dauda
  3. 16A. Palma
  1. 20A. Ulloa
  2. 15P. Parrilla
  3. 6Kevin Presa
  1. 5Pol Moreno
  2. 19R. Lucero
  3. 3Pere Haro
  4. 18Kike Hermoso
  1. 1Marc Martínez

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 09:33 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Getxo have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Lugo have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arenas Getxo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Mérida AD(home)0-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 12, 2026Cultural Leonesa(away)1-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Barakaldo(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Athletic Club II(home)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Cacereño(away)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Lugo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(home)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 12, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Real Avilés(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Racing Ferrol(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Zamora(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Arenas Getxo win, 2 draws, 0 Lugo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026Lugo 1-1 Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2025Arenas Getxo 0-0 LugoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 12, 2022Arenas Getxo 1-0 LugoCopa del Rey

Last archived meeting: Lugo vs Arenas Getxo on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arenas Getxo score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 1.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Arenas Getxo0.92.328/159/15
Lugo1.50.686/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arenas Getxo sit 20th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (2 points from 8 matches) and Lugo sit 1st (22 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Lugo871015422
20Arenas Getxo80265222

A question about Arenas Getxo vs Lugo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arenas Getxo vs Lugo?
The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Arenas Getxo.
Where and when is Arenas Getxo vs Lugo played?
Arenas Getxo vs Lugo is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Gobela, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Arenas Getxo and Lugo

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