Where and when is Barakaldo vs Real Avilés played?

Barakaldo vs Real Avilés is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Barakaldo vs Real Avilés: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo

Barakaldo

Real Avilés

The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Real Avilés. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?

A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,958) and Real Avilés (1,870).

Barakaldo win57 %

Draw24 %

Real Avilés win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Real Avilés have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Barakaldo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Portugalete(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(home)	1-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Real Avilés(away)	4-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 9, 2026	Mérida AD(home)	2-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 1, 2026	Tenerife(away)	0-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Real Avilés
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(home)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Mosconia(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 13, 2026	Racing Ferrol(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Racing Santander II(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 5, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Barakaldo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Real Avilés win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 17, 2026	Real Avilés 1-4 Barakaldo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 7, 2025	Barakaldo 1-2 Real Avilés	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 17, 2024	Barakaldo 1-4 Real Avilés	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Real Avilés vs Barakaldo on May 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Barakaldo	1.3	0.9	6	5/15	5/15
Real Avilés	1.5	1.5	2	12/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Barakaldo sit 7th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Real Avilés sit 14th (44 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Barakaldo	38	15	13	10	51	38	58
14	Real Avilés	38	11	11	16	55	67	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?: The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Real Avilés.
Where and when is Barakaldo vs Real Avilés played?: Barakaldo vs Real Avilés is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.