Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 8Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Estrela, Évora
The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Vitória de Sernache. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,936) and Vitória de Sernache (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Vitória de Sernache have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 31, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vitória de Sernache score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 4th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Vitória de Sernache sit 9th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Vitória de Sernache | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache?
- The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Vitória de Sernache.
- Where and when is Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache played?
- Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Vitória de Sernache is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Estrela, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.