Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 10Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim
The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Vitória de Sernache. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mafra wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,785 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Vitória de Sernache (1,903) and Mafra (1,956).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitória de Sernache
4-3-3- 20Lucas Daniel
- 7A. Dias
- 20G. Barge
- 10André Dias
- 19E. Moura
- 6R. Embalo
- 17T. Marques
- 3Diego Tavares
- 4Matheus Matias
- 2Paulinho
- 1Joao Lucas
Mafra
4-3-3- 7R. Matos
- 9Mamor Niang
- 11Leandro Alves
- 46Braima Samú
- 37A. Ba
- 6Y. Maïga
- 5Gonçalo Cardoso
- 2M. Camara
- 3Kauê Alves
- 13Celso Raposo
- 33Pedro Silva
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mafra have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Vitória de Sernache wins, 0 draws, 1 Mafra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mafra 5-0 Vitória de Sernache | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitória de Sernache score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mafra score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mafra | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitória de Sernache sit 10th in Liga 3 (4 points from 6 matches) and Mafra sit 4th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Vitória de Sernache.
- Where and when is Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra played?
- Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.