Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kadrioru staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 38%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Tallinna Kalev. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Tallinna Kalev (1,367) and Flora II (1,373).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Flora II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tallinna Kalev win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Flora II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Flora II 3-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 1-4 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 3-1 Flora II | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 7, 2021 | Tallinna Kalev 1-1 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 19, 2021 | Flora II 1-5 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Flora II vs Tallinna Kalev on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Flora II score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Flora II | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tallinna Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga A (18 points from 16 matches) and Flora II sit 3rd (26 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Flora II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 42 | 41 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II?
- The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 38%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Tallinna Kalev.
- Where and when is Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II played?
- Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kadrioru staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.