Malacateco vs Aurora: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 17Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía, Malacatán
The Footlab AI model makes Malacateco the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Aurora. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malacateco vs Aurora?
On Elo ratings, Malacateco has 1,600 points and Aurora 1,578.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malacateco vs Aurora
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malacateco
4-3-3- 10J. Ochoa
- 11N. Andrade
- 29E. Quiñónes
- 17R. Meneses
- 55A. Soto
- II. de Leon
- MM. Chun
- 5J. Esqueda
- HH. Cummings
- 16A. Morales
- AA. Guzman
Aurora
4-3-3- 31V. Urias
- 13H. Morales
- 12Paulo Motta
- 17D. Bajan
- 10J. Vivas
- 18J. Grajeda
- 4C. Monterroso
- 3Marcos Antonio Acosta Rojas
- 15K. Garcia
- 5J. Lemus
- 22L. Sanchez
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malacateco have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Aurora have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guastatoya(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marquense(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Mixco(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Xelajú(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Guastatoya(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marquense(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mixco(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malacateco wins, 1 draw, 3 Aurora wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aurora 1-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Malacateco 1-1 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Aurora 1-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Aurora 2-1 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Malacateco 1-0 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Malacateco 1-0 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Malacateco score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aurora score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malacateco | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Aurora | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malacateco sit 10th in Liga Nacional (22 points from 22 matches) and Aurora sit 11th (20 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
A question about Malacateco vs Aurora?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malacateco vs Aurora?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malacateco the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Aurora.
- Where and when is Malacateco vs Aurora played?
- Malacateco vs Aurora is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.