Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Deportivo La Coruna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Malaga (2,055) and Deportivo La Coruna (2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Deportivo La Coruna have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC St. Pauli(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Malaga win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Deportivo La Coruna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Malaga 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna | Segunda División |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna | Segunda División |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Jul 8, 2020 | Malaga 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna | Segunda División |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Malaga | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo La Coruna vs Malaga on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo La Coruna score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 19th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Deportivo La Coruna sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Who is out?
8 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Adrián Niño HerediaMalagaOut(Injury)
- A. OchoaMalagaOut(Knee Injury)
- Diego MurilloMalagaOut(Injury)
- Fernando CaleroMalagaOut(Ribs Injury)
- JuanpeMalagaOut(Muscle Injury)
- M. DiarraMalagaDoubtful(Calf Injury)
- NoéDeportivo La CorunaOut(Injury)
- PekeDeportivo La CorunaDoubtful(Groin Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Deportivo La Coruna.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna played?
- Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna is played on August 24, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.