Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Malaga (2,053) and Rayo Vallecano (2,095).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malaga win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2021 | Malaga 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 4-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Jul 2, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Apr 20, 2016 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2015 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano on Feb 21, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 19th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.