Elche vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1. If Villarreal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,443 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Villarreal?
Villarreal starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (2,172 vs 2,046).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Elche vs Villarreal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 18P. Gueye
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 24N. Saliba
- 12Renato Veiga
- 6Pau Navarro
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 3A. Freeman
- 25P. Gulácsi
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Villarreal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Elche wins, 0 draws, 4 Villarreal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Villarreal 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Elche 1-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Elche 3-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Villarreal 4-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2022 | Elche 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 22, 2021 | Villarreal 4-1 Elche | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 18th in La Liga (6 points from 8 matches) and Villarreal sit 11th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Elche vs Villarreal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Elche.
- Where and when is Elche vs Villarreal played?
- Elche vs Villarreal is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.