Villarreal vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Malaga. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Malaga?
Villarreal starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (2,168 vs 2,027).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 18P. Gueye
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 24N. Saliba
- 12Renato Veiga
- 6Pau Navarro
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 3A. Freeman
- 25P. Gulácsi
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Villarreal wins, 1 draw, 1 Malaga win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga 1-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2018 | Malaga 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2017 | Villarreal 2-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Feb 12, 2017 | Villarreal 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Sep 10, 2016 | Malaga 0-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Feb 13, 2016 | Villarreal 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 11th in La Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Villarreal vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Malaga played?
- Villarreal vs Malaga is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.