Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barcelona wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,436 Elo points against 2,105, a 331-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 17A. Gordon
- 11Raphinha
- 16Rodri
- 20Dani Olmo
- 8Pedri
- 24Eric García
- 18Gerard Martín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 12X. Espart
- 1Joan García
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Barcelona have 13, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 7-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Levante(away) | 4-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rayo Vallecano wins, 1 draw, 5 Barcelona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Barcelona 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 3.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Barcelona | 3.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 24 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.