Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 294-point Elo edge (2,389 vs 2,095).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Barcelona 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 15th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Barcelona sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.