Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab model makes Mancha Real the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Mancha Real (1,694) and Arenas Armilla (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mancha Real win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Arenas Armilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Mancha Real 0-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 2-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Mancha Real 1-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Mancha Real 1-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mancha Real sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (37 points from 34 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 4th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab model makes Mancha Real the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Jan 10, 2027UD San PedrovsGranada II
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