Mancha Real vs Melilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melilla wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Melilla?
Melilla starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,863 vs 1,667).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mancha Real vs Melilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mancha Real
Not enough data to predict the Mancha Real lineup.
Melilla
4-3-3- 10Víctor Morillo
- 21Carlos Bravo
- BB. Kavtaradze
- AAdrián Tovar
- 19Armando
- 19Iván Ramos
- 4Manuel Galán
- 3Fran Varela
- 3Lolo González
- DDiego Ceballos
- EEdua Loscos
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 01:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Melilla have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mancha Real win, 1 draw, 0 Melilla wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2022 | Melilla 0-2 Mancha Real | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Mancha Real 2-2 Melilla | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Melilla vs Mancha Real on May 15, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Melilla | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mancha Real sit 17th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (2 points from 6 matches) and Melilla sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about Mancha Real vs Melilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Melilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Melilla played?
- Mancha Real vs Melilla is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.