Mancha Real vs Melilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab model makes Mancha Real the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Melilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Melilla?
Melilla starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Melilla have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Málaga II(away) | 3-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Linares Deportivo(home) | 2-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Águilas(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Estepona(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mancha Real win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Melilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2022 | Melilla 0-2 Mancha Real | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Mancha Real 2-2 Melilla | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Melilla vs Mancha Real on May 15, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Melilla | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Melilla?
- The Footlab model makes Mancha Real the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Melilla.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Melilla played?
- Mancha Real vs Melilla is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.