Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 0-0. If APS Bomet wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,487) and APS Bomet (1,525).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
APS Bomet
Not enough data to predict the APS Bomet lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; APS Bomet have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Bandari(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Mara Sugar wins, 2 draws, 2 APS Bomet wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Mara Sugar 0-0 APS Bomet | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APS Bomet 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Jul 13, 2022 | APS Bomet 1-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Mara Sugar 0-1 APS Bomet | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; APS Bomet score 1.0 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| APS Bomet | 1.0 | 0.4 | 10 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 6th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and APS Bomet sit 14th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
- The Footlab AI model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet played?
- Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet is played on May 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.