Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,488 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,679 vs 1,478).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; GOR Mahia have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Mara Sugar wins, 1 draw, 3 GOR Mahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2026 | Mara Sugar 0-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | GOR Mahia 3-0 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | GOR Mahia 4-0 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Mara Sugar 0-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia on May 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 11th in FKF Premier League (6 points from 5 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia played?
- Mara Sugar vs GOR Mahia is played on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.