Police vs Tusker: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, Ouagadougou
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 39%, against 35% for a draw and 26% for Tusker. The most likely score is 0-0. If Police wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,455 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Tusker?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Police (1,600) and Tusker (1,559).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Tusker
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat; Tusker have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(away) | 2-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Police wins, 2 draws, 2 Tusker wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker 2-1 Police | Shield Cup |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Police 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Tusker 1-2 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Tusker 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Police 1-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| May 18, 2024 | Police 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 1.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 25% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 9th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Tusker sit 2nd (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Police vs Tusker?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Tusker?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 39%, against 35% for a draw and 26% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Police vs Tusker played?
- Police vs Tusker is played on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 25% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.