Mathare United vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Nairobi United wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,223 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Nairobi United?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Mathare United (1,442) and Nairobi United (1,539).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Nairobi United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Nairobi United
4-3-3- 33B. Ochieng
- 5S. Mwinyi
- 10H. Muhadjiri
- 29D. Odhiambo
- 24L. Owino
- 26B. Mzee
- 34L. Ogutu
- 2Y. Mainge
- 12K. Otiende
- 4J. Otieno
- 32K. Oduor
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 12:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | KCB(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | KCB(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Mathare United wins, 0 draws, 1 Nairobi United win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Mathare United 1-2 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Nairobi United 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Nairobi United 2-3 Mathare United | Super League |
| Nov 15, 2023 | Mathare United 2-0 Nairobi United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Nairobi United on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 15th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 2 matches) and Nairobi United sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mathare United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs Nairobi United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Nairobi United played?
- Mathare United vs Nairobi United is played on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.