AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for AFC Leopards. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate AFC Leopards (1,589) and APS Bomet (1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Leopards have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; APS Bomet have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Mara Sugar(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Bandari(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 AFC Leopards win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 APS Bomet win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet 2-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | AFC Leopards 2-1 APS Bomet | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: APS Bomet vs AFC Leopards on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Leopards score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; APS Bomet score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| APS Bomet | 1.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Leopards sit 2nd in FKF Premier League (64 points from 34 matches) and APS Bomet sit 10th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AFC Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 28 | 64 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 35 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet?
- The Footlab model makes APS Bomet the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for AFC Leopards.
- Where and when is AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet played?
- AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet is played on November 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.