Marchamalo vs Toledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Deportivo La Solana, Marchamalo
The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toledo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marchamalo vs Toledo?
Toledo starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,750).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marchamalo vs Toledo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marchamalo
Not enough data to predict the Marchamalo lineup.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 09:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marchamalo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Toledo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Socuéllamos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Almansa(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tarancón(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Villacañas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Marchamalo wins, 1 draw, 5 Toledo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Marchamalo 0-2 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Toledo 3-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 4, 2025 | Marchamalo 0-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Toledo 2-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Marchamalo 0-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Toledo 4-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marchamalo score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marchamalo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marchamalo sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (11 points from 7 matches) and Toledo sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 13 |
| 9 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
A question about Marchamalo vs Toledo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marchamalo vs Toledo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Marchamalo vs Toledo played?
- Marchamalo vs Toledo is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Deportivo La Solana, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.