Where and when is Marek vs Nesebar played?

Marek vs Nesebar is played on September 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bonchuk, in the Second League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Marek vs Nesebar: prediction and stats

Second LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa

Marek

Nesebar

The Footlab model makes Marek the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marek vs Nesebar?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Marek (1,631) and Nesebar (1,698).

Marek win37 %

Draw28 %

Nesebar win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marek have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Nesebar have 12, 0 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marek
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Dobrudzha(home)	4-2	Second League
Aug 16, 2026	Montana(away)	0-1	Second League
Aug 7, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away)	0-1	Second League
Aug 1, 2026	Spartak Pleven(away)	1-2	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Fratria(away)	1-0	Second League

Nesebar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Pirin Blagoevgrad(home)	7-0	Second League
Aug 16, 2026	Sportist Svoge(away)	1-0	Second League
Aug 10, 2026	Dobrudzha(home)	2-0	Second League
Aug 4, 2026	Montana(away)	1-3	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home)	1-5	Second League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Marek win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Nesebar win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 17, 2025	Marek 1-0 Nesebar	Second League
Nov 23, 2024	Nesebar 0-2 Marek	Second League

Last archived meeting: Marek vs Nesebar on May 17, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Marek score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Marek	1.0	0.9	7	4/15	6/15
Nesebar	3.7	1.1	7	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Marek sit 10th in Second League (6 points from 5 matches) and Nesebar sit 3rd (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
10	Marek	5	2	0	3	6	6	6

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marek vs Nesebar?: The Footlab model makes Marek the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Nesebar.
Where and when is Marek vs Nesebar played?: Marek vs Nesebar is played on September 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bonchuk, in the Second League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.