Marino vs Estrella: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, Los Cristianos (Tenerife)
The Footlab AI model makes Marino the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Estrella. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marino vs Estrella?
On Elo ratings, Marino has 1,721 points and Estrella 1,623.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marino vs Estrella
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marino
Not enough data to predict the Marino lineup.
Estrella
4-3-3- AAdrián Socorro
- MMarco
- AAlejo
- KKevin Suárez
- VVictor Jesús Lorenzo Lorenzo
- FFede Manzi
- JJaime
- FFran Ramírez
- IIan Bolaños Gracia
- AAythami Artiles Oliva
- AArturo Caballero
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marino have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Estrella have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Unión Sur Yaiza(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Playas Sotavento(home) | 6-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Laguna de Duero(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Los Llanos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Fernando(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Las Palmas III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villaverde Norte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Marino wins, 1 draw, 1 Estrella win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Estrella 2-2 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Marino 4-1 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Estrella 2-0 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Marino 5-1 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marino score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marino | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Estrella | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marino sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (7 points from 5 matches) and Estrella sit 11th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | Estrella | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Marino vs Estrella?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marino vs Estrella?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marino the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Estrella.
- Where and when is Marino vs Estrella played?
- Marino vs Estrella is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Real Unión de TenerifevsUnión Sur Yaiza
- Oct 17, 2026Laguna de DuerovsPlayas Sotavento
- Oct 17, 2026Panadería PulidovsSan Miguel
- Oct 17, 2026Los LlanosvsLanzarote
- Oct 17, 2026Villaverde NortevsAnaza
- Oct 17, 2026UD San FernandovsVilla Santa Brígida
- Oct 17, 2026San BartolomévsTenerife C
- Oct 17, 2026Las Palmas IIIvsMensajero