Where and when is Marino vs Estrella played?

Marino vs Estrella is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Marino vs Estrella: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, Los Cristianos (Tenerife)

Marino

Estrella

The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Estrella. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marino vs Estrella?

Marino starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,704 vs 1,598).

Marino win53 %

Draw27 %

Estrella win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marino have 0 wins, 10 draws and 5 defeats; Estrella have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marino
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jul 26, 2026	Tenerife(home)	0-6	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Arucas(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 1, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Unión Sur Yaiza(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 18, 2026	San Miguel(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Estrella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Herbania(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	San Bartolomé(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2025	Santa Úrsula(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 17, 2025	Buzanada(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2025	Marino(home)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Marino win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Estrella win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 12, 2025	Estrella 2-2 Marino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 1, 2024	Marino 4-1 Estrella	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 6, 2023	Estrella 2-0 Marino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 11, 2022	Marino 5-1 Estrella	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Estrella vs Marino on Apr 12, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Marino score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Marino	0.7	1.5	3	8/15	5/15
Estrella	0.9	1.0	5	7/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Marino	34	8	15	11	44	40	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marino vs Estrella?: The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Estrella.
Where and when is Marino vs Estrella played?: Marino vs Estrella is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.