Maroons vs URA: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab model makes Maroons the favourite at 42%, against 36% for a draw and 22% for URA. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maroons vs URA?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Maroons (1,517) and URA (1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maroons have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; URA have 3, 9 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Lugazi(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 19, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| May 12, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 7, 2026 | KCCA(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2026 | URA(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Buhimba Saints(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 19, 2026 | KCCA(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 12, 2026 | Calvary(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 8, 2026 | Vipers(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Maroons win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 URA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | URA 2-2 Maroons | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Maroons 0-0 URA | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | URA 1-0 Maroons | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Maroons 2-1 URA | Premier League |
| Feb 29, 2024 | URA 2-0 Maroons | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Maroons 1-1 URA | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Maroons score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; URA score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 21% probability of over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maroons | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| URA | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maroons sit 8th in Premier League (38 points from 30 matches) and URA sit 11th (31 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Maroons | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 38 |
| 11 | URA | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 27 | 30 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maroons vs URA?
- The Footlab model makes Maroons the favourite at 42%, against 36% for a draw and 22% for URA.
- Where and when is Maroons vs URA played?
- Maroons vs URA is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 21% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.