Police vs Mbarara City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)MTN Omondi Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mbarara City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Mbarara City?
Police starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,523 vs 1,403).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mbarara City have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Kitara(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 19, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 12, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Calvary(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | UPDF(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | KCCA(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| May 19, 2026 | Buhimba Saints(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | SC Villa(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Lugazi(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Express(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Police win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mbarara City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Mbarara City 1-2 Police | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Police 1-1 Mbarara City | Premier League |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Police 2-0 Mbarara City | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Mbarara City 0-0 Police | Premier League |
| Apr 12, 2022 | Mbarara City 3-0 Police | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2021 | Police 0-0 Mbarara City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mbarara City vs Police on Apr 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mbarara City score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Mbarara City | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 7th in Premier League (47 points from 30 matches) and Mbarara City sit 12th (27 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Police | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 47 |
| 12 | Mbarara City | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 46 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Mbarara City?
- The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mbarara City.
- Where and when is Police vs Mbarara City played?
- Police vs Mbarara City is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at MTN Omondi Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.