Marquense vs Malacateco: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
The Footlab model makes Marquense the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Malacateco. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marquense vs Malacateco?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Marquense (1,605) and Malacateco (1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marquense have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Malacateco have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(away) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mixco(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Municipal(home) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Deportivo San Pedro(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 2-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Xelajú(home) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guastatoya(away) | 0-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marquense win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Malacateco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Marquense 1-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Malacateco 2-1 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Malacateco 2-1 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Marquense 4-1 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Marquense 2-0 Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Malacateco 1-0 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Marquense vs Malacateco on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marquense score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Malacateco score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquense | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Malacateco | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marquense sit 8th in Liga Nacional (30 points from 22 matches) and Malacateco sit 10th (22 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 30 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marquense vs Malacateco?
- The Footlab model makes Marquense the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Malacateco.
- Where and when is Marquense vs Malacateco played?
- Marquense vs Malacateco is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.