Estac Troyes vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,958) and Marseille (2,054).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 22H. Picard
- 29D. Karim
- 23T. Nkada
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 3A. Ouzenadji
- 2L. Maronnier
- 33P. Beach
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 22T. Weah
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 1J. de Lange
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estac Troyes wins, 1 draw, 5 Marseille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Marseille 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 15, 2018 | Estac Troyes 2-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 20, 2017 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Marseille vs Estac Troyes on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Marseille | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 16th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Marseille sit 17th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Marseille played?
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille is played on October 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.