Marseille vs Lens: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 32Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lens. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Lens?
On Elo ratings, Marseille has 2,055 points and Lens 2,159.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marseille vs Lens
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Lens
3-4-2-1- 11O. Édouard
- 10F. Thauvin
- 14M. Udol
- 27M. Cuisance
- 2R. Aguilar
- 8Y. Titraoui
- 21A. Haidara
- 32K. Antonio
- 25I. Ganiou
- 24J. Gradit
- 40R. Risser
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Lens have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marseille wins, 0 draws, 3 Lens wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Marseille 3-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Lens 2-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Marseille 0-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lens 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Marseille 2-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Lens 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lens score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lens | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 13th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Lens sit 10th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Marseille vs Lens?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Lens?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lens.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Lens played?
- Marseille vs Lens is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.