Lens vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lens wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
Lens starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (2,177 vs 2,067).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lens vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lens
3-4-2-1- 11O. Édouard
- 10F. Thauvin
- 14M. Udol
- 27M. Cuisance
- 2R. Aguilar
- 8Y. Titraoui
- 21A. Haidara
- 32K. Antonio
- 25I. Ganiou
- 24J. Gradit
- 40R. Risser
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lens have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lens wins, 0 draws, 3 Marseille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Marseille 3-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Lens 2-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Marseille 0-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lens 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Marseille 2-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Lens 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lens score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lens sit 10th in Ligue 1 (7 points from 6 matches) and Marseille sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Lens vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lens vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lens the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Lens vs Marseille played?
- Lens vs Marseille is played on November 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.