Toulouse vs Lorient: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 32Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab model makes Toulouse the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lorient?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Toulouse (1,974) and Lorient (2,010).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lorient have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nice(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toulouse win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Lorient win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Toulouse 1-0 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lorient 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Lorient 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Toulouse 1-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Lorient 0-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Toulouse 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Lorient | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 15th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Lorient sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lorient?
- The Footlab model makes Toulouse the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Lorient played?
- Toulouse vs Lorient is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.