Mara Sugar vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mara Sugar wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,486) and Mathare United (1,458).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs Mathare United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Mathare United have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mara Sugar wins, 0 draws, 3 Mathare United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Mathare United 0-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Mathare United 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Mara Sugar 3-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Mara Sugar 1-0 Mathare United | Super League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Mathare United 2-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs Mathare United on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 6th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Mathare United sit 11th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Mathare United played?
- Mara Sugar vs Mathare United is played on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.