Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Parceiro Nagano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano?
Matsumoto Yamaga starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,701 vs 1,597).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Parceiro Nagano have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 0-6 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(away) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Fukui United(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Osaka(away) | 2-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Parceiro Nagano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Parceiro Nagano | J2/J3 League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano 0-5 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2/J3 League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Parceiro Nagano 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| May 14, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 2-2 Parceiro Nagano | J3 League |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Parceiro Nagano 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Parceiro Nagano | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Parceiro Nagano score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Parceiro Nagano | 0.8 | 1.4 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Parceiro Nagano sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Parceiro Nagano.
- Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano played?
- Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano is played on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Apr 17, 2027Renofa YamaguchivsKamatamare Sanuki
- Apr 17, 2027Roasso KumamotovsFukushima United
- Apr 17, 2027KitakyushuvsEhime FC
- Apr 17, 2027FC RyukyuvsThespakusatsu Gunma
- Apr 17, 2027SagamiharavsBiwako Shiga
- Apr 17, 2027Kochi UnitedvsTochigi SC
- Apr 17, 2027Nara ClubvsKanazawa