Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Newcastle Jets (1,890) and Melbourne City (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Melbourne City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newcastle Jets win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Melbourne City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Melbourne City 0-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Newcastle Jets 0-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 1st in A-League (48 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne City sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City is played on January 19, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.