Melbourne Victory vs Auckland: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on January 15, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Auckland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Auckland?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Melbourne Victory (1,900) and Auckland (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Auckland have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-0 | A-League |
| May 15, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 2, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne Victory win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Auckland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Auckland 2-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-0 Auckland | A-League |
| May 24, 2025 | Auckland 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 17, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Auckland | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-2 Auckland | A-League |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Auckland 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Auckland vs Melbourne Victory on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Auckland score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Auckland | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 4th in A-League (40 points from 26 matches) and Auckland sit 3rd (42 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auckland | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Auckland?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Auckland.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Auckland played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Auckland is played on January 15, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.