Match

Melbourne City vs Macarthur: prediction and stats

A-LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on April 9, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne

Melbourne CityMacarthur

The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Melbourne City vs Macarthur?

A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,882) and Macarthur (1,809).

Melbourne City win40 %
Draw26 %
Macarthur win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Macarthur have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Melbourne City
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 11, 2026Lions(away)0-2Australia Cup
Aug 7, 2026Palermo(home)0-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 26, 2026Weston Bears(away)3-0Australia Cup
May 2, 2026Auckland(away)1-1A-League
Apr 26, 2026Adelaide United(home)1-2A-League
Macarthur
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 11, 2026SD Raiders(away)1-1Australia Cup
Jul 22, 2026Uni Azzurri(away)3-0Australia Cup
Apr 24, 2026Wellington Phoenix(home)4-0A-League
Apr 19, 2026Adelaide United(away)1-3A-League
Apr 12, 2026Perth Glory(away)1-3A-League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne City win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Macarthur win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 24, 2026Macarthur 6-2 Melbourne CityA-League
Dec 23, 2025Melbourne City 1-1 MacarthurA-League
Mar 7, 2025Melbourne City 2-0 MacarthurA-League
Jan 25, 2025Macarthur 1-0 Melbourne CityA-League
Mar 1, 2024Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne CityA-League
Nov 12, 2023Melbourne City 3-3 MacarthurA-League

Last archived meeting: Macarthur vs Melbourne City on Jan 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Melbourne City1.31.257/157/15
Macarthur1.51.9210/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Macarthur sit 7th (34 points from 26 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Melbourne City261088333338
7Macarthur269710374434

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Macarthur?
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Macarthur.
Where and when is Melbourne City vs Macarthur played?
Melbourne City vs Macarthur is played on April 9, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Melbourne City and Macarthur

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