Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Newcastle Jets (1,890) and Adelaide United (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle Jets win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Adelaide United 2-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 2-1 Adelaide United | Australia Cup |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 1st in A-League (48 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United is played on April 10, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.