Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,882) and Newcastle Jets (1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Melbourne City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Newcastle Jets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Melbourne City 0-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Newcastle Jets 0-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets is played on May 8, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.