Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Newcastle Jets. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,102 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,842) and Newcastle Jets (1,845).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 13N. Atkinson
- 2H. Delbridge
- 4L. Bonetig
- 16A. Behich
- 1M. Freke
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 8P. Wood
- 14M. Burgess
- 28W. Dobson
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 11J. Lolley
- 27J. Recchia
- 23D. Wilmering
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 1J. Delianov
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Melbourne City wins, 1 draw, 2 Newcastle Jets wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Melbourne City 0-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Newcastle Jets 0-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 12th in A-League (0 points from 1 match) and Newcastle Jets sit 5th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Newcastle Jets.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets is played on May 8, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.