Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Brisbane Roar have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne Victory win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Brisbane Roar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Brisbane Roar score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Brisbane Roar | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 4th in A-League (40 points from 26 matches) and Brisbane Roar sit 11th (26 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar is played on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.