Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,905 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (1,896 vs 1,668).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-4-1-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 10D. Genreau
- 23K. Jelacic
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 4P. Ziereis
- 25J. Duncan
Brisbane Roar
4-1-4-1- 17J. Vidic
- 6N. Maieroni
- 44J. Lauton
- 77M. Stajic
- 2Jacob Nasso
- 10Nam Tae-Hee
- 3D. Valkanis
- 15H. Bility
- 53A. Mitchell
- 2Y. Salas
- 1D. Bouzanis
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Brisbane Roar have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne Victory win, 3 draws, 2 Brisbane Roar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Brisbane Roar score 1.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Brisbane Roar | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar is played on May 9, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.