Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 185-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,750).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-4-2- 44C. Nduka
- 9H. Sawyer
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Central Coast Mariners
4-2-3-1- 22A. De Lima
- 72A. Auglah
- 9O. Lavale
- 8C. Donnell
- 37B. Brandtman
- 41Shumba Mutokoyi
- 5L. Mauragis
- 15S. Roux
- 12Noah McCann
- 26B. Tapp
- 30A. Redmayne
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne Victory wins, 1 draw, 3 Central Coast Mariners wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 3-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 25, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 4th in A-League (40 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.