Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne Victory win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Central Coast Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 3-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 25, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 4th in A-League (40 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.