Melbourne City vs Sydney: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Sydney?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,882) and Sydney (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sydney have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Bayswater City(away) | 5-1 | Australia Cup |
| May 23, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 0-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Melbourne City win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Sydney win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Sydney 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Melbourne City 0-0 Sydney | A-League |
| May 3, 2025 | Melbourne City 5-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Sydney 2-3 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Sydney 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Melbourne City 2-0 Sydney | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Sydney vs Melbourne City on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sydney score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sydney | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Sydney sit 5th (39 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sydney | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Sydney?
- The Footlab model makes Sydney the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Sydney played?
- Melbourne City vs Sydney is played on October 31, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.