Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Macarthur (1,809) and Newcastle Jets (1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Macarthur win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Newcastle Jets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Macarthur 3-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 1-0 Macarthur | A-League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 4-5 Macarthur | A-League |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-0 Macarthur | Australia Cup |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Macarthur 3-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-3 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Macarthur.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets is played on March 6, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.