Where and when is Melilla vs Marbelli played?

Melilla vs Marbelli is played on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Melilla vs Marbelli: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 15Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Álvarez Claro, Melilla

Melilla

Marbelli

The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Marbelli. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Melilla vs Marbelli?

A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Melilla (1,808) and Marbelli (1,773).

Melilla win48 %

Draw29 %

Marbelli win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melilla have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Marbelli have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Melilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Málaga II(away)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Linares Deportivo(home)	2-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026	Recreativo Huelva(away)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 12, 2026	Águilas(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 5, 2026	Estepona(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Marbelli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Granada II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Huétor Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Huétor Tájar(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 11, 2026	UD Melilla II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

How many goals should we expect?

Melilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Melilla	1.2	1.5	2	8/15	7/15
Marbelli	0.9	0.7	7	6/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36	28	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Melilla vs Marbelli?: The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Marbelli.
Where and when is Melilla vs Marbelli played?: Melilla vs Marbelli is played on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.