Match

Melilla vs Marbelli: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 15Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Álvarez Claro, Melilla

MelillaMarbelli

The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Marbelli. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Melilla vs Marbelli?

On Elo ratings, Melilla has 1,853 points and Marbelli 1,791.

52%28%20%
Melilla winDrawMarbelli win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Melilla vs Marbelli

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Melilla

4-3-3
  1. 10Víctor Morillo
  2. 21Carlos Bravo
  3. BB. Kavtaradze
  1. AAdrián Tovar
  2. 19Armando
  3. 19Iván Ramos
  1. 4Manuel Galán
  2. 3Fran Varela
  3. 3Lolo González
  4. DDiego Ceballos
  1. EEdua Loscos

Marbelli

Not enough data to predict the Marbelli lineup.

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:04 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melilla have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Marbelli have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Melilla
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026UD San Pedro(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 4, 2026Alhaurino(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 27, 2026Malaga City(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 20, 2026Torre del Mar(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 12, 2026Huétor Vega(home)3-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Alhaurino(home)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 4, 2026Malaga City(away)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 27, 2026Torre del Mar(home)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 20, 2026Huétor Vega(away)3-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 13, 2026Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

How many goals should we expect?

Melilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Melilla1.61.147/158/15
Marbelli1.00.766/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Melilla sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (18 points from 6 matches) and Marbelli sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Melilla660013318
4Marbelli64118513

A question about Melilla vs Marbelli?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Melilla vs Marbelli?
The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Marbelli.
Where and when is Melilla vs Marbelli played?
Melilla vs Marbelli is played on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Melilla and Marbelli

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