Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Melilla played?

Arenas Armilla vs Melilla is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arenas Armilla vs Melilla: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla

Arenas Armilla

Melilla

The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Melilla. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Melilla?

A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,783) and Melilla (1,808).

Arenas Armilla win45 %

Draw30 %

Melilla win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Melilla have 3, 4 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arenas Armilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 20, 2026	Peña Deportiva(away)	2-5	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 14, 2026	Peña Deportiva(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 7, 2026	Motril(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 31, 2026	Motril(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 24, 2026	Torre del Mar(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Melilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Málaga II(away)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Linares Deportivo(home)	2-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026	Recreativo Huelva(away)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 12, 2026	Águilas(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 5, 2026	Estepona(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arenas Armilla	1.1	1.4	3	8/15	5/15
Melilla	1.2	1.5	2	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Arenas Armilla	34	15	9	10	38	29	54

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Melilla?: The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Melilla.
Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Melilla played?: Arenas Armilla vs Melilla is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.