Arenas Armilla vs Melilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab AI model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Melilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arenas Armilla wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,247 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Melilla?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,837) and Melilla (1,851).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arenas Armilla vs Melilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arenas Armilla
Not enough data to predict the Arenas Armilla lineup.
Melilla
4-3-3- 10Víctor Morillo
- 21Carlos Bravo
- BB. Kavtaradze
- AAdrián Tovar
- 19Armando
- 19Iván Ramos
- 4Manuel Galán
- 3Fran Varela
- 3Lolo González
- DDiego Ceballos
- EEdua Loscos
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 02:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Melilla have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cantoria(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Melilla | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Armilla sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (15 points from 7 matches) and Melilla sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 15 |
A question about Arenas Armilla vs Melilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Melilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Melilla.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Melilla played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Melilla is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsChurriana Vega
- Dec 13, 2026Huétor VegavsAlmería II
- Dec 13, 2026Mancha RealvsMotril
- Dec 13, 2026AlhaurinovsCantoria
- Dec 13, 2026Torre del MarvsGranada II
- Dec 13, 2026UD San PedrovsAtlético Porcuna
- Dec 13, 2026Malaga CityvsMálaga II
- Dec 13, 2026Atletico de MarbellavsMarbelli