San Miguel vs Playas Sotavento: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes San Miguel the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Playas Sotavento. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Miguel vs Playas Sotavento?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate San Miguel (1,740) and Playas Sotavento (1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Miguel have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Playas Sotavento have 0, 1 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Telde(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Marino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mensajero(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | Gévora(away) | 1-1 | Copa del Rey |
How many goals should we expect?
San Miguel score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Playas Sotavento score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Miguel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Playas Sotavento | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 0/1 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 43 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Miguel vs Playas Sotavento?
- The Footlab model makes San Miguel the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Playas Sotavento.
- Where and when is San Miguel vs Playas Sotavento played?
- San Miguel vs Playas Sotavento is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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