Where and when is Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento played?

Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)

Mensajero

Playas Sotavento

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Playas Sotavento. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento?

Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,749).

Mensajero win50 %

Draw27 %

Playas Sotavento win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Playas Sotavento have 0, 1 and 0.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Playas Sotavento
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Oct 9, 2024	Gévora(away)	1-1	Copa del Rey

How many goals should we expect?

Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Playas Sotavento score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15
Playas Sotavento	1.0	1.0	0	1/1	0/1

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Playas Sotavento.
Where and when is Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento played?: Mensajero vs Playas Sotavento is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.