Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 18Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Bedford Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,814) and Bedford Town (1,799).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Bedford Town
Not enough data to predict the Bedford Town lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 02:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Bedford Town have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Macclesfield(home) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Cray Wanderers(away) | 2-2 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Cray Wanderers(home) | 0-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Merthyr Town wins, 0 draws, 0 Bedford Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Merthyr Town 7-1 Bedford Town | National League - North |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Bedford Town 3-4 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bedford Town score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Bedford Town | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 19th in National League - North (16 points from 15 matches) and Bedford Town sit 10th (22 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bedford Town | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 22 |
| 19 | Merthyr Town | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Bedford Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Bedford Town is played on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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