Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Marine played?

Merthyr Town vs Marine is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Merthyr Town vs Marine: prediction and stats

National League - NorthNational League North - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil

Merthyr Town

Marine

The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Marine. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Merthyr Town vs Marine?

A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,873) and Marine (1,791).

Merthyr Town win49 %

Draw23 %

Marine win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Marine have 7, 1 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Merthyr Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	South Shields(away)	1-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	AFC Telford United(home)	2-2	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Spennymoor Town(away)	1-2	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Hednesford Town(home)	2-0	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Worcester City(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

Marine
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	King's Lynn Town(away)	4-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	Chorley(home)	0-2	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Hereford(away)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Macclesfield(home)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Bootle(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Merthyr Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Marine win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 14, 2026	Marine 1-3 Merthyr Town	National League - North
Aug 19, 2025	Merthyr Town 1-3 Marine	National League - North

Last archived meeting: Marine vs Merthyr Town on Apr 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Marine score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Merthyr Town	1.5	1.5	3	10/15	11/15
Marine	1.5	1.2	4	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Marine sit 18th (3 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Marine?: The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Marine.
Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Marine played?: Merthyr Town vs Marine is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.