Bedford Town vs Hereford: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The New Eyrie, Cardington, Bedfordshire
The Footlab model makes Hereford the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Bedford Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bedford Town vs Hereford?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Bedford Town (1,763) and Hereford (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bedford Town have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Hereford have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southport(away) | 1-4 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Buxton(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 2-3 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Bedford Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Hereford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Bedford Town 2-2 Hereford | National League - North |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Hereford 2-2 Bedford Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Bedford Town vs Hereford on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bedford Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hereford score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Hereford | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bedford Town sit 20th in National League - North (3 points from 4 matches) and Hereford sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hereford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 20 | Bedford Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bedford Town vs Hereford?
- The Footlab model makes Hereford the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Bedford Town.
- Where and when is Bedford Town vs Hereford played?
- Bedford Town vs Hereford is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The New Eyrie, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Sep 26, 2026ChorleyvsSpalding United
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- Sep 26, 2026AFC Telford UnitedvsKing's Lynn Town
- Sep 26, 2026Brackley TownvsScarborough Athletic
- Sep 26, 2026Hednesford TownvsRadcliffe