Merthyr Town vs Spalding United: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 30Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Spalding United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 5,241 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Spalding United?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,839) and Spalding United (1,820).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Spalding United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Spalding United
Not enough data to predict the Spalding United lineup.
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 01:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Spalding United have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 3-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Brackley Town(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Alvechurch(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spalding United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Spalding United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 16th in National League - North (19 points from 16 matches) and Spalding United sit 12th (21 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spalding United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 21 |
| 16 | Merthyr Town | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 19 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Spalding United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Spalding United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Spalding United.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Spalding United played?
- Merthyr Town vs Spalding United is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.